Friday, 9 February 2018

The Irish border question

The Brexit negotiations with the EU have a circle that needs squaring - it's the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. The Republic want the border to stay completely open because they depend heavily on trade with the North.

The EU says if the UK leaves the customs union this can only happen if the North has a different legal status from the rest of the UK, ie remains quasi inside the EU. The DUP, who hold the balance of power in parliament, say no way - the North must remain identical to the other parts of the UK.

The UK would be willing to stay in the customs union except that the EU says if you're in the customs union you must allow free immigration. But the whole point of Brexit was to end mass immigration. There is no reason, of course, why a customs union requires free immigration but the EU won't allow one without the other; basically to coerce countries into opening their doors to the masses. They have already done it to Norway and Switzerland.

There is no real answer to this question, so, someone is going to have to crack.

Dead cat bounce

Have a look at a few stock market graphs....

See the little uptick at the end of the long declines before it goes back down again? That's called the dead cat bounce. So-called, because dead cats don't bounce back up.

It should be pretty clear the world's markets are over-valued and going to have to crash. If they are this jittery at the mere prospect of a base rate rise, how will they react to an actual rise; followed by another rise, and then another, and so on until the base rates get back to normal?

Badly,  I reckon.

Monday, 29 January 2018

President Trump and the Morgan

Yesterday, TV personality Piers Morgan achieved a career high when he interviewed President Trump for a few minutes in Davos, Switzerland, where world leaders have congregated to talk economics.

Naturally, Morgan tried to make it all about himself, but we still managed to glean some interesting facts about Mr Trump in the few seconds Morgan let him talk; and very encouraging facts they are too.

Mr Trump does not believe in man-made global warming, although he supports, quite passionately it seems,  clean air and clean water. He supports the right to bear arms. He is not a feminist. He has no idea who Jeremy Corbyn or Sadiq Kahn are. He doesn't much regret retweeting the Britain First videos. He will visit the UK, possibly twice. And the UK will be front of the line for a trade deal come Brexit.

Perhaps most surprisingly, President Trump came across as far more diplomatic than one might expect, not least in giving Piers Morgan the time of day.

Friday, 26 January 2018

It's time to re-colonize South Africa

The Republic of South Africa was granted independence from Great Britain by the South Africa Act 1909. It is now time to repeal that Act and bring southern Africa back under colonial administration.

Ever since the white South Africans voted for universal suffrage in 1994 and handed over their country to black rule, it has been going down hill. While Nelson Mandela was alive the worse excesses of black violence were kept in check, not by Mandela himself, but by the focus of the world being on Mandela. The ANC government was under close observation by the international community and felt constrained from anything too drastic.

But since Mandela's death, the muzzle has come off and the ANC has been vocal in its anti-white rhetoric. They want whites' property taken from them; especially farm land. The very poor black population has totally believed the "whites are to blame for all your problems" mindset pushed by their corrupt leaders and farm attacks now number in the thousands per year - almost thousands per farm per year in some places.

Black-on-white crime is characterized by extreme brutality, because it is as much about revenge for past imaginary injustice, as stealing things. It usually consists of rape, mutilation and murder - not necessarily in that order. The perpetrators were probably not born back in the apartheid days, but they still believe the oppression narrative.

There are about five million whites still living in South Africa. One million of them are destitute, jobless and homeless, and living in squatter camps. Whites now find it very difficult to get jobs because companies are not allowed to employ them except in an eight-to-one ratio with blacks. In practice, to have a job in South Africa, a white must be self-employed; ideally working remotely for a foreign company and earning dollars or pounds. The rand has collapsed to a tenth of its high-watermark value.

However, despite endorsing white genocide, the South African goverment does not want the whites to leave. National stability requires a group to blame. Blaming the whites stops the many  black tribes which inhabit South Africa from fighting each other. It is quite predicable that if the whites ever left, the country would descend into tribal civil war and essentially revert to the Stone Age. It would become one of the sh*thole countries President Trump spoke about recently.

The other reason the government wants the whites to stay, is that the four million of them who do have jobs, are the taxpayers.

When it took over in 1994, the black government looted the country by selling off its assets: aircraft from the air force; public utilities, land, etc. A lot of these were bought by China. But the country is pretty much fully looted now. The remaining whites are financing the whole show.

So the unstated policy of the black government is to keep the whites; milking them for money, and blaming them for all woes to keep the anger off themselves. They want the whites to stay until they are all dead.

The plight of South African whites has been well known to the Right for years now, but the mainstream media doesn't cover it, so the general population in the West is largely unaware. But right now there are two high profile "alt-right" journalists in South Africa - Katie Hopkins and Lauren Southern. See YouTube reports from them here:

After watching those videos it should be clear that whites in South Africa don't have long to live.

To save them we can do one or both of two things. One, give all white South Africans a western password and enough money to get here, or two, deploy a military force onto the continent to secure a safe zone for whites.

This blog favours doing both. Grant UK or US passports to give the white South Africans mental security, the knowledge that if it all goes wrong there is a way out - for all of them, all ages, all education levels. (The young well-educated can already get out but they are not going to leave behind their old folks.)

But also, it is now time to repeal South African independence and put a military force into the Cape Provence. Use a small secured area, centered on Cape Town, to build a local white militia, with massive white unemployment this should not be hard. Then use the locally hired army to push north, possibly up into Zimbabwe - another failed state.

Ideally, the intervention would rapidly become self-financing as farmland was restored to its rightful white owners and the enormous natural wealth of the land became exploitable.

This is what it will take to save five million white lives.

Friday, 8 December 2017

Brexit deal part one: not so good

Brexit part I has been agreed-ish. PM Theresa May was dragged from her bed at some ungodly hour this morning just so she could be in Brussels on TV at 7am looking pally with the EU negotiator Michel Barnier when Brexit part one was presented to the press. It's not formally agreed yet though - the EU27 governments will approve it next week.

You can read it here if you really want.

But to save you the bother, I'll tell you it's not such a good deal.

Or to put it another way, it's plenty good for the EU and not so good for the UK. You can tell this by the fact that the EU has not trimmed its budget by a single canapé, despite one of its biggest net contributors leaving. They are expecting us to carry on paying for years to come. The deal document doesn't give an amount, just a formula for working it out, but it seems £50bn is expected from the UK taxpayer.

The other two issues taxing the EU are: the rights of EU citizens living in the UK, and the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

The Brexit deal says all the foreign citizens on both sides may stay where they are. This may sound all fine and dandy, but there are one million UK citizens resident in the EU27 and three million EU citizens in the UK. There is a major imbalance here which has not been addressed. If citizens are going to stay put then okay, but UK citizens should be allowed to move to the EU until that two million surplus is used up (which admittedly would probably be never.)

As far as the NI border goes - how do you leave the customs union and the trade area and still keep an open border? Likely, you cannot. The agreement says we will keep the border open though. The solution is going to have to be a fudge of some sort; maybe cars will pass without inspection but trucks must pull over. There is no good answer to this question.

However, the deal so far has two silver linings. First the "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" is written into it, so everything can be changed. And second, parliament gets a vote on the final deal, and as things are looking there is a good chance they will just strike the whole thing down and we will end up with no deal, which would be better than this deal, not least because it would force the EU to negotiate seriously. Two million surplus citizens and a massive trade imbalance will concentrate their minds.

Friday, 1 December 2017

Thesea May is a plonker

She should never have responded to President Trump retweeting the Britain First videos. A complete and dignified silence was the diplomatically correct course of action. The Donald does not forgive or forget those who cross him - and now more than ever the UK needs to make and keep friends aboard.

As for Britain First and Jayda Franken herself: props to them for the work they are doing. The mainstream of course reviles them, but what is the mainstream doing to halt the invasion of our country? Answer, nothing. At least BF are putting boots on the ground. 

As for Trump, he probably had little or no idea of what he was doing; likely he has never actually heard of Britain First (which was formed when senior BNP figures argued, resulting in a schism. The BNP effectively went out of business and a couple of other parties were formed, including BF)

Trump also tweeted at the wrong @TheresaMay. However, when Trump makes a mistake he does not retract, he doubles down. TM should know this and should not have (effectively) forced him into the current position. If you play the game according to his rules, Trump will give you what you want. If you don't, then you're the enemy.

Wednesday, 22 November 2017

Budget, Autumn 2017

Spreadsheet Phil was up on his hind legs in the Commons today at 12:40 PM to deliver his second budget of the year. He got a first bite of this cherry in March this year before the disastrous general election that cost the Tories their majority.

And, too late to do any good, he was in a give-away mood. In between jokes and some casual banter with fellow Tories behind him, he reported that growth was expected to less than expected; so were wages, but on the plus side inflation and unemployment were also expected to fall.

Then he threw money at every hot topic.  Universal Credit, the much reviled benefit, was made more generous.  Education was splashed with cash; especially maths teachers (although, strangely, the small print in the paperwork indicated no actual increase in spending.) There's going to be a new National Centre for Computing. 

Phil: Have some money, please, I insist...

The police got a bung. Police and Fire in Scotland got taken out of VAT. Seven new towns along the M5 corridor were mooted and the big finale - stamp duty abolished for first-time buyers. Subject to a maximum purchase price of £300K though, or in certain areas £500K with only the first £300K discounted. (The small print in this could require careful reading.)

Electric cars were mentioned; so were self-drive cars; diesel cars were practically the only thing that suffered a tax rise, but only new ones, and defo not white van man. Oh no, Phil was quite clear on that. So that's the diesel car market fooked. 

Then national living wage went up (£7.50 to £7.83); tax allowances went up: basic £11,850, higher £46,350. In this Spring budget it was £11,500 and  £45,000 - so higher rate tax payers have had a nice little bonus.

Tobacco got hit - RPI plus 2%, but alcohol and petrol were frozen; except the cheapest "white" cider. Scotland recently introduced minimum unit pricing for alcohol but it looks like Phil is going the other way and using duty to control excessive consumption.

Anyway, let's have a look at the numbers, with Spring also shown for contrast.

He's spending a total of £809bn, compared with £802bn in the Spring, but only borrowing £40bn compared with £58bn in the Spring. Debt interest payments are reduced by £5bn. Nice, and all down to quantitative easing printing away the debt for him.

Poor and sick people are the big winners with an extra £7bn on benefits and £6bn on the NHS. Transport and Housing have been scalped because the big house building give-away is going to be in the form of loans and guarantees - good old off-the-books stuff.

Phil also mentioned the possibility of compulsory purchase of land with planning permission when nothing is built on it. And councils will be allowed to charge double council tax for empty homes.

To conclude, it's a "safe" budget. All the sensitive causes have been blessed. No-one anyone cares about will be poorer. No hard decisions were taken.

So Corbyn had a hard time in his response speech. He did point out that pay was lower (in real terms, although he didn't say that) than in 2010. He then fell back on his old trick of mentioning people by name (but first name only.) Martin was on Universal Credit and had to go to a food bank; Clare's mum worked for the NHS; Tammy was a single parent suffering from a lack of policing. Sadly there was not much sympathy for them in the House.